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Sciences Po

Policy Shift is proud to partner with OPALC, the Latin American Observatory at Sciences Po

Policy Shift Weekly News: our selection of weekly analysis on political and economic global risks in 2020

February 18, 2020

Every week, Policy Shift will share a selection of recent articles and publications focused on public policy and innovation. This week’s theme deals with political and economic global risks in 2020. 

 

IHS Markit, which is a leading source of critical information, published its top ten economic predictions for 2020. On January 28, 2020, the group also organized the Economics and Country Risk European Roadshow 2020 in Paris to discuss major issues affecting the global and financial environment addressing the following main topics: 

 

2020 Vision: IHS Markit perspective

  • What could go wrong, and where might we be positively surprised?

  • US election year: A game changer for the global economy?

  • Europe at a turning point: economy, policy and climate change

  • Iran: Conflict outlook and implications

  • Sanctions: Impact, effectiveness, and outlook

 

On January 6,2020, Eurasia Group published its annual forecast of the 10 political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year. Eurasia Group’s top 10 risks for 2020 are: 

 

   1. Rigged!: Who Governs the US?

   2. The Great Decoupling

   3. US/China

   4. MNCs not to the rescue

   5. India gets Modi-fied

   6. Geopolitical Europe

   7. Politics vs. Economics of Climate Change

   8. Shia Crescendo

   9. Discontent in Latin America

 10. Turkey

 

Black Rock Investment has built its own geopolitical risk tool “BlackRock’s Geopolitical Risk Dashboard” and they highlight their top 10 risks.  

 

Geoquant is a startup company fusing political science with computer science to identify, track and price political risks for global investors. In their report The Year Ahead/ 2020 Data-Driven Predictions for Global Investors, they suggest that “despite a recent spike, Global Political Risk is forecast to decline through the first half of 2020, re-accelerating in the second half but remaining subdued relative to the tumultuous period beginning in 2016”. 

 

Interested in learning more about global risks and 2020 outlooks, read more at: 

 

World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2020: 

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risk_Report_2020.pdf

 

Moody’s 2020 Outlooks: 

https://www.moodys.com/newsandevents/topics/2020-Outlooks-007051

 

S&P Global Rating, Outlook 2020: A Precarious Balance

https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research-insights/topics/outlook-2020

 

FitchRating Credit Outlooks 2020: 

https://your.fitchratings.com/outlooks-2020.html

 

 

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